Newzoo: 2026 console revenue would be flat year-on-year without Grand Theft Auto 6

Summary

According to Newzoo's latest forecast, without the release of Grand Theft Auto 6 in 2026, global console game revenue would remain flat year-over-year compared to 2025, showing almost no growth. This prediction underscores the enormous influence of GTA6 on the entire console ecosystem. As the newest entry in one of the best-selling game series in history, GTA6 is expected to trigger a surge in console hardware and software sales, particularly boosting PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S units during the later stages of their lifecycle. With hardware sales already slowing and few major exclusive titles available, the absence of GTA6 would leave the market without a killer app, forcing growth to rely on live services and long-tail revenue from older games. For players, GTA6 represents not only a highly anticipated game but also a potential reason to upgrade consoles, subscribe to services, or purchase peripherals. For the industry, it is poised to be the most important catalyst of 2026, invigorating the entire supply chain. Yet, this dependence on a single blockbuster also highlights a risk: if the game slips or underperforms, industry growth could suffer significantly. Newzoo's data offers a valuable reference for developers and publishers, reminding them to account for both uncertainties and opportunities posed by major releases.